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Back in August 2008, I advised my readers in a post ( Buy USD vs EUR ) of a likely decline of the Euro against the US Dollar because of worsening situation of Europe compared to the United States. And indeed, three years and a half later, the Euro has declined from 1.5 dollars to 1.35 (-10%). What about now? As Euro area is just entering the second leg of a double-dip recession - IMF forecasts -0.5% GDP growth in 2012 compared to +1.8% for the USA. (didn't we also warn you about it? see the post of July 2010 -   Double Dip  ), a further decline of the Euro wouldn't be surprising... EURUSD exchange rate (Google Finance)

In October 2009, I posted a message on the fantastic business story of Iliad . I said "their model is based on innovation in products and simplicity in marketing." After having revolutionized the French Internet broadband access with the "FreeBox", they have done the same when entering the mobile network operating business. Their new offer of unlimited calls and text messages, unlimited Internet access and no commitment for 20 euros per month is both simple and innovative. They managed to dramatically reduce the price compared to existing competitors by not subsidizing the purchase of the phone. As a result, this new offer has forced their three competitors: SFR, Orange and Bouygues Telecom to reduce their prices, hence breaking an oligopoly. The presentation of the new offer by Iliad's CEO, Xavier Niel, one of France's greatest entrepreneurs. (in French) Free : la conférence de Xavier Niel en intégralité par LeNouvelObservateur And this success sto

Another article on the divisions of Macro schools of thoughts Just five years ago, macroeconomists talked about a new synthesis, bringing together Keynesian and Classical ideas in a unified, microfounded theoretical framework. Following the Great Recession, it appears that mainstream macroeconomics has once again split into schools of thought. This column explains why macroeconomics, unlike microeconomics, periodically fragments in this way. In the 1970s and 1980s, macroeconomics was all about ‘schools of thought’. A popular textbook (Snowdon  et al  1994) had the title  A Modern Guide to Macroeconomics: An Introduction to Competing Schools of Thought . Macroeconomists tended to take sides, and different schools had clear ideological associations. Antagonists often talked across each other, and anyone not already on one side just got totally confused. Schools of thought fragmented mainstream macroeconomics in a way that had no parallel in mainstream microeconomics. But

Economist Jonathan Portes discusses what it means to be an Keynesian economist. Fiscal policy: What does ‘Keynesian’ mean? Jonathan Portes 7 February 2012 What does it mean to be a ‘Keynesian’? This column argues that, like so much in economics, the label has become politicised. The cost is an impoverished policy debate that is resulting in millions of avoidable job cuts. I joined the UK Treasury in 1987 and subsequently went to Princeton, where I studied with Rogoff and Campbell. Eventually, I ended up in the Cabinet Office, advising the Prime Minister, on the eve of the 2008 crisis. At no point during this period, however, did I think of myself as a ‘Keynesian’. Nor was it really a meaningful question. You might as well have asked a physicist if he was a ‘Newtonian’. Keynes was a great figure (indeed, one of the greatest Britons of the 20th century) and you had to understand his insights to understand macroeconomics; but the debate had moved on. The Treasury approa