CFOs say no economic recovery until late 2009


Survey of CFOs by the Duke University provides interesting reading about the economic outlook




  • Optimism among chief financial officers in the United States is at its lowest point ever (see chart below)
  • Most CFOs say the economy is currently in recession or will be in recession at some point during 2008. Nearly 90 percent of CFOs say the economy will not rebound until 2009.

  • They expect inflation will increase to 3 percent this year.

  • Credit conditions have directly hurt 35 percent of companies, through decreased availability of credit and higher interest rates (up 118 basis points on average).

  • Seventy-four percent of CFOs say the Fed cuts have had no impact on their business.

  • In Asia, CFOs have turned more pessimistic (43% more pessimistic vs 38% more optimistic); they think that the likely US economy recession will have a negative impact on their firm's earnings but expect domestic demand to help replace the subsequent loss of business.

  • In Europe, CFOs have turned extremely pessimistic (60% more pessimistic vs 10% more optimistic). They state cost of labour as their no. 1 corporate concern and weak consumer demand as their no. 1 macro-concern.


Optimism diffusion measures the percentage of CFOs who have increased optimism minus the percentage who have decreased optimism (through March 2008).


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