Krugman lecture at MIT

What have we learned from the credit crisis? A lecture by Paul Krugman, my hero. Here are the main extracts:

  • This crisis is any many ways similar to the 30s one
  • Crisis tend to occur when we forget about previous crisis
  • We forgot that banks were unstable (and therefore needed to be regulated). This is mainly targeted at the Americans
  • In the Great Depression, the Fed did not even try to expand the monetary base. In this respect, Bernanke did much better.
  • Big government with all its flows has the advantage of being an "automatic stabilizer" in periods of crisis.
  • Financial crisis have long lasted consequences (cf. "This time is different" by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff). There is a risk that we remove economic stimulus too early and the economy to plunge back into recession.



Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

French industry's competitiveness

The Gallois report about the French industry's competitiveness has just been made public (links here ) and received a lot of publicity from the French media. As a trained economist and French patriot, I was eager to read it. The author, a respected businessman - formerly head of aerospace giant EADS -  describes rather briefly the declining state of the French industry over the last ten years, which accounted for 18% of GDP in 2000 and is now down to 12.5%. What are the causes of this decline? The author cites various causes, ranging from product quality, technology, labour flexibility, cost, competition, education and regulation. Standard economic theory says the government should increase labour flexibility, promote competition, support education and enact smart regulation. For example, the Porter Hypothesis (cf Ambec et al 2011 ) states that market-friendly environmental policy can enhance business competitiveness through innovation. What are the main propositions? Create
Read more

Is the yield curve back to the 1950s-1960s?

Image
In recent years, the yield curve has flattened and shifted downwards. The flattening has received a lot of attention because it is viewed as a recessionary signal. In this article, we argue that the fact that the curve has shifted downwards as well as flattening indicates that the yield curve may have changed regime. This regime shift seems to have been caused by lower inflation expectations and lower risk premia. In an environment of lower inflation and lower risk premia, the yield curve may occasionally invert without signalling a recession as it did in 1966. 1. The recessionary signal Inversions of the yield curve have often been used to predict recessions. The 10-year to 3-month spread between US Treasury yields became briefly negative twice this year in March and the May (figure 1), spurring debate about whether this was signalling a forthcoming recession. The negative spread was mainly the result of a decrease of the 10-year yield – from 2.8 per cent on 1 March to 2.4 per cen
Read more

Are the Euro Area and the US en route to Japanisation?

Image
As part of NIESR's quarterly World Forecast, you will find a link to a box co-written by my colleagues Corrado Macchiarelli, Barry Naisbitt and myself about the risk of 'Japanisation' for the US and Euro Area economies. Here is an extract. Since the financial crisis, the Euro Area and US economies have had a period during which their economies showed some of the same characteristics as Japan. This note examines their experience in the context of whether they are en route to Japanisation. We conclude that the period from 2013 to 2016 was very similar to that situation but that the US has now clearly moved away from that experience. The Euro Area, however, while it cannot be described as having suffered Japanisation, has not moved as decisively away from that experience.
Read more